Growth Lever Simulator

What the Growth Lever Simulator Does

The growth lever simulator lets you test “what if” scenarios without rebuilding your funnel, changing your pricing, or launching a new campaign.

It answers questions like:

• If we increase conversion by 10%, what happens to revenue?

• If we raise average order value by 5%, does it outperform buying more traffic?

• If we improve retention, what does that do to annual run rate?

• Which lever gives the biggest impact for the least effort?

This is not a forecasting tool. It’s a leverage tool.

It helps leaders choose where to focus first.

Who This Tool Is For

The growth lever simulator is useful for:

• founders and CEOs who need clarity on growth priorities

• COOs who want predictable execution targets

• CMOs who want to reduce “more traffic” as the default answer

• revenue leaders comparing funnel and pricing initiatives

• teams aligning marketing, sales, and retention under one model

It’s also useful when:

• growth feels stuck even though activity is high

• CAC is increasing

• conversion is inconsistent

• retention is flat

• pricing decisions are made without clarity on impact

How the Growth Lever Simulator Works

The simulator uses a simple revenue model based on four inputs you provide.

Baseline inputs:

• monthly visitors (traffic)

• conversion rate (%)

• average order value (AOV)

• retention frequency (repeat purchases per year)

Then it calculates annual baseline revenue using:

Annual Revenue = Traffic × Conversion Rate × AOV × Retention × 12

The sliders apply percentage increases to each lever so you can test scenarios and compare tradeoffs.

This structure is intentionally simple. Simple models are easier to align a leadership team around.

The Four Growth Levers Explained

If you want to use the simulator well, it helps to understand what each lever typically represents in real operations.

1) Traffic Volume (Visitors)

Traffic is input volume.

Traffic improvements usually come from:

• paid acquisition

• SEO and content distribution

• partnerships

• outbound and audience building

Traffic is powerful, but it often increases CAC unless the rest of the system improves.

If you increase traffic without improving conversion or retention, you often just pour more volume into a leaky bucket.

2) Conversion Rate

Conversion rate is efficiency.

Conversion improvements usually come from:

• clearer positioning and offer clarity

• better landing page structure

• faster follow-up (for lead-gen funnels)

• better qualification

• stronger proof and objection handling

Conversion is often the highest leverage lever because it improves the output from the same input.

3) Average Order Value (AOV)

AOV is pricing and packaging.

AOV improvements usually come from:

• packaging changes

• value-based pricing

• upsells and bundles

• offer design and guarantees (carefully, without overpromising)

AOV increases can improve revenue quickly, but they must match market willingness to pay and delivery reality.

4) Retention (Repeat Purchase Frequency)

Retention is compounding.

Retention improvements usually come from:

• improved onboarding and time-to-value

• customer success systems

• product improvements

• lifecycle campaigns and reactivation

• better customer fit from the start

Retention is powerful because it reduces acquisition dependence and improves long-term profitability.

How to Use the Growth Lever Simulator (Step-by-Step)

Step 1: Enter your baseline numbers

• monthly visitors

• conversion rate

• average order value

• retention frequency

Step 2: Confirm your baseline annual revenue
This gives you a starting point your team can agree on.

Step 3: Adjust one lever at a time
Start by moving only one slider.

This helps you see which lever creates the biggest change.

Step 4: Compare combined improvements
After single-lever tests, combine realistic changes.

Example:

• +10% conversion

• +5% AOV

• +10% retention

Step 5: Use the results to choose the next initiative
The simulator gives direction, not answers.

Your next step is to choose the highest-leverage initiative you can execute reliably.

How to Interpret Your Results (Leadership Guidance)

The output is most useful when you treat it as a prioritisation tool.

A good interpretation process:

1. Identify the top lever in your scenario
   Which lever created the biggest revenue lift?

2. Ask what it would take operationally
   What systems or improvements would produce that lever change?

3. Check effort vs confidence
   How confident are you that you can achieve that improvement in the next 30–90 days?

4. Choose one lever to focus on first
   Multi-lever strategies are good, but most teams need one clear constraint to fix first.

A practical rule

If your simulator results show traffic dominates, verify your conversion and retention first.

Traffic-driven growth is often the most expensive way to scale.

Common Mistakes When Using Growth Models

The growth lever simulator is simple, but teams often misuse it in predictable ways.

Mistake 1: Using optimistic inputs

If baseline numbers are inflated, the output is misleading.

Use 3-month averages, not best-month numbers.

Mistake 2: Over-indexing on traffic

Traffic often looks easiest to change.

But it can hide system leakage:

• poor conversion

• weak follow-up

• low retention

• unclear offer

Mistake 3: Ignoring constraints

If delivery or sales capacity is the constraint, improving marketing may not help.

Mistake 4: Treating the simulator as a forecast

This is not a financial forecast.

It’s a directional model to choose leverage points.

Mistake 5: Improving a lever that breaks another lever

Examples:

• raising AOV reduces conversion

• increasing volume reduces follow-up quality

• pushing retention offers reduces margin

This is why systems thinking matters.

Example Scenarios

Scenario 1: Lead-gen business with rising CAC

Baseline:

• traffic is increasing

• conversion is flat

• follow-up is inconsistent

Likely leverage:
Improve conversion rate before buying more traffic.

Operational moves:

• speed-to-lead standard

• qualification rules

• landing page clarity

• proof and objections

Scenario 2: Ecommerce business with stable traffic

Baseline:

• traffic is stable

• conversion is stable

• AOV is low

• retention is flat

Likely leverage:
Test AOV and retention improvements.

Operational moves:

• bundles and upsells

• onboarding and lifecycle offers

• post-purchase emails

• time-to-value improvements

If This Sounds Like You (Diagnostic Checklist)

The growth lever simulator is most useful if you recognise these patterns:

• growth depends on buying more traffic

• CAC is rising

• conversion fluctuates month to month

• retention is flat

• pricing hasn’t been reviewed in 12 months

• teams disagree on what to prioritise

• dashboards exist but decisions still feel uncertain

If these are true, a leverage model helps you pick a focus that reduces wasted effort.

How I Think About This (From Real Work)

I built tools like this because most growth teams default to volume.

What I typically see:

• traffic becomes the “easy button”

• conversion and retention are treated as secondary

• pricing is avoided because it feels risky

• teams run many initiatives without a clear leverage hypothesis

What I prioritize:

• establish a baseline everyone agrees on

• identify the highest leverage lever

• connect that lever to a real operational change

• run one focused improvement cycle

• review results weekly and adjust

What good looks like:

• fewer growth initiatives at once

• clearer tradeoffs

• improved efficiency before increased spend

• more predictable growth without constant pressure